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Prediction for CME (2013-03-15T06:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-03-15T06:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/121/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33
Dst min. in nT: -132
Dst min. time: 2013-03-17T21:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T15:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: BHV
Prediction Method Note:

(Arrival Prediction by Volker Bothmer, submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)

On Mar 18, 2013, at 8:50 PM, Volker Bothmer  wrote:

Just one comment that we do not predict shock arrival times but CME 
arrival time.
Volker

On Mar 16, 2013, at 8:29 AM, Volker Bothmer  wrote:

Our forecast posted at the AFFECTS website at www.affects-fp7.eu under 
the Weather button is:

March 16, 2013

On 15 March 2013 around 07 UT a halo CME occurred on the Earth directed 
solar disk slightly NE to central meridian. It was associated with a 
M1.2 flare. Part of the CME is expected to be directed towards earth. 
From the BHV model we forecast its arrival time around 15 UT on March 
17. The CME's speed at earth is estimated to 550-600 km/s. Magnetic 
field analysis yields a WSE (NWS) LH type CME with peak storm phase to 
occur near the center and trailing portion of the CME. The peak storm is 
expected to occur before midnight on March 17 until morning of March 18 
with expected Kp values of about 7. Polar lights may be visible in 
southern Scandinavia. You are welcome to test our L1 solar wind, Kp, 
Aurorae alerts provided as RSS feeds (not directly available with the 
Safari Browser). The services are provided through the "Project" button 
at the AFFECTS main page.

Greetings, Volker

Lead Time: 16.98 hour(s)
Difference: -9.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-03-16T12:29Z

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